Every insider trade is scored 0–100 across five independent factors. Each factor is worth up to 20 points. The total determines the signal tier — from LOW to STRONG BUY. Scores update live as market data changes.
Dollar value of the insider purchase. A $1B buy by a CEO carries far more conviction than a $50K purchase — they're putting real money on the line.
| Condition | Points | Label |
| ≥ $1 billion | 20 pts | Mega buy |
| ≥ $500 million | 18 pts | Very large buy |
| ≥ $100 million | 15 pts | Large buy |
| ≥ $10 million | 11 pts | Significant buy |
| ≥ $1 million | 7 pts | Moderate buy |
| ≥ $500K | 6 pts | Notable buy |
| ≥ $250K | 5 pts | Modest buy |
| ≥ $100K | 4 pts | Small buy |
| < $100K | 3 pts | Minimal buy |
Average return across all previous trades by the same insider in your watchlist. Insiders who have consistently bought before big runs earn higher conviction scores.
| Condition | Points | Label |
| Avg return ≥ 150% | 20 pts | Exceptional |
| Avg return ≥ 80% | 17 pts | Strong |
| Avg return ≥ 30% | 14 pts | Solid |
| Avg return ≥ 0% | 10 pts | Modest |
| Avg return < 0% | 4 pts | Poor |
| No prior trades | 10 pts | Neutral (default) |
Catalysts detected in the stock’s recent news headlines and earnings calendar (plus any notes on the trade). Political disclosures start higher than corporate purchases. Context boosters are additive up to the 20-point cap.
| Condition | Points | Label |
| CEO base score | 6 pts | Open-market purchase |
| Political base score | 8 pts | STOCK Act disclosure |
| Cluster buying | +4–12 pts | Scales with cluster size: 2×/3×/4×+ insiders |
| Near legislative vote | +5 pts | Legislation / bill / committee in headlines |
| Bought ahead of earnings | +3 pts | Purchase 1–21 days before an earnings date |
| M&A catalyst | +3 pts | Merger / acquisition in recent headlines |
| Earnings within 2 weeks | +2 pts | Upcoming earnings date proximity |
| Regulatory catalyst | +2 pts | FDA / approval / trial in headlines |
| Defense / government contract | +2 pts | Defense / Pentagon / contract in headlines |
| AI / tech catalyst | +2 pts | AI / datacenter in headlines |
| Upcoming announcement | +1 pt | Partnership / launch in headlines |
How recently the purchase occurred. Insider information has a shelf life — trades from last week carry more signal value than trades from two years ago.
| Condition | Points | Label |
| ≤ 30 days ago | 20 pts | Very fresh |
| ≤ 90 days ago | 16 pts | Recent |
| ≤ 180 days ago | 12 pts | Moderately aged |
| ≤ 365 days ago | 7 pts | Aging |
| ≤ 730 days ago | 3 pts | Old |
| > 730 days ago | 1 pt | Historical |
Current price action and analyst sentiment. A strong day on the stock corroborates the insider's view. Analyst price targets above the current price add further conviction.
| Condition | Points | Label |
| Day change ≥ +3% | 18 pts | Strong day |
| Day change ≥ +1% | 15 pts | Positive day |
| Day change ≥ 0% | 12 pts | Flat |
| Day change ≥ −1% | 8 pts | Slight pullback |
| Day change ≥ −3% | 5 pts | Selling pressure |
| Day change < −3% | 2 pts | Heavy selling |
| Analyst upside >20% | + 3 pts | Bonus: strong analyst consensus |
| Analyst upside >10% | + 1 pt | Bonus: moderate analyst upside |
| Analyst consensus<0 | − 2 pts | Penalty: analysts bearish |
| No live data | 8 pts | Neutral pending quote |
Target price is set to the analyst consensus price target if it is more than 5% above the current price. If no consensus target exists, InsiderEdge uses the insider's historical average return (capped conservatively at 55%) or a sector-average baseline — whichever is higher, with a minimum 12% upside.
Stop loss is fixed at 8% below the current price ( entry × 0.92 ), providing a consistent risk reference across all signals.
Risk / reward is calculated as (target − entry) / (entry − stop). A ratio of 2:1 or higher is generally considered favorable.